Wednesday, March 25, 2009

(Black) Swan Song

I had planned for today to be a rest day. I was going to run hills with Megan tomorrow, but the timing will be tricky with her kids in school. Plus, it looks like Saturday will be nasty, cold rainy weather. So, I’m thinking about using my new “flexibility” to do my last 20 mile run on Friday. The only tricky part is that means I need to get a tempo run in today. I already agreed to meet with my old boss, and explain some transitional items to him. It was bittersweet – I had to turn in my signed severance agreement, and check some HR items out. But people were very gracious, and genuinely wished me well. Before I knew it, I was there for over 6 hours. There is a financial theory called “the Black Swan”, which says that planning for 99.99% occurrences is not enough- there is that one in a million event that can be so out of the ordinary – like a ”Black Swan”. My office mate had a professor at the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business who developed this theory. Last summer, I suggested that we have this academic speak at our conference of mortgage banking clients. There was no response, so I’m not sure if a Black Swan or an Ostrich was the operative bird, but in any case, the chickens have come home to roost.
I am going to miss the office, which had great camaraderie, which I was in the middle of – in my own way. Although I was one of the oldest, I was known as the marathon runner in the group, since I had actually run more than just one or two marathons. People came to me for advice, and I think I encouraged and helped them. I started our Chase Corporate Challenge team, and we had teams for 5 years. At first, I was the fastest one on the team, but we have some fast young guys who are almost a minute per mile faster than me for these short races.
I take home the personal papers and accumulated personal hygiene items, and I am headed home from this downtown Chicago High-rise for the last time. I get home just before 5 pm. I check with my wife on the ETA for dinner, and I figure I can get in my seven mile tempo run. I am supposed to run at an 8 minute pace, but every mile is under 8 minutes, and about half of them are right about 7:30. It’s windy and it’s a hilly route, but it’s amazing how stress can make you faster.

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